Darryl Glenn is down by 10 points, not 16, in a new poll, but that’s still not enough

The New York Times may give Darryl Glenn a less than 1 percent chance of winning his Senate campaign against incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, but a poll from Louisville-based Magellan Strategies narrows the race a little bit from previous voter surveys.

The New York Times’ compilation of polls give Bennet a 16 point advantage, but the poll by Magellan puts Glenn behind by only 10 points.

The polling firm found 48 percent of voters favored Bennet and 38 percent preferred Glenn. Four percent are going for Libertarian Lily Tang Williams and 3 percent like Green Party candidate Arn Menconi. Seven percent of voters are undecided.

The poll is based on interviews with 500 likely voters in late August and has a margin of error of 4.38 percent. The results are adjusted based on demographics and how each group was represented in the 2012 election.

Bennet has big advantages with Democrats, 90 percent of whom favor him, and with unaffiliated voters, who are going for Bennet 46 percent to 28 percent. Darryl Glenn has a large lead with married men, who prefer him 53 percent to 36 percent, and he’s up five points (45 percent to 40 percent) with voters aged 45 to 54.

While this poll is the closest we’ve seen the race so far, Magellan still notes Bennet’s “sizable advantage, which, if it holds, would be the largest margin of victory in a Colorado U.S. Senate race in quite some time.”

To gain ground, Glenn would have to make a big impact with unaffiliated voters, Magellan analysts wrote.

“The dynamics of this race will have to shift in order for Darryl Glenn to become competitive,” the firm’s blog post said.

Erica Meltzer

Author: Erica Meltzer

Erica Meltzer covers government and politics. She's worked for newspapers in Colorado, Arizona and Illinois and once won a First Amendment Award by showing up in the wrong place at the wrong time. She served in the Peace Corps in Paraguay and can swear fluently in Guarani. She gets emotional about public libraries. Contact Erica Meltzer at 303-502-2802, emeltzer@denverite.com or @meltzere.